Advancing sustainability in China's pulp and paper industry requires coordinated raw material supply and waste paper management.

• A closed-loop material flow analysis model is established for China's pulp and paper industry (CPPI), followed by a comprehensive quantitative analysis from both retrospective and prospective perspectives. • By implementing sound plans and stricter regulations and standards, China has improved recycling and material use efficiency, reduced the organic material with wastewater, and shifted towards recovered paper as a raw material over non-wood fiber. • Lowering the waste paper recycling rate to increase carbon storage is not suitable for China, due to the limited virgin fiber and growing demand. • The growing paper demand requires efforts from both ends of virgin fiber supply and waste paper management towards the sustainable development of CPPI. As the largest global producer and consumer of pulp and paper, China faces significant sustainability challenges in fiber supply and waste paper management. A comprehensive material flow analysis of China's pulp and paper industry (CPPI) is needed to understand the interaction between raw material supply and waste paper management. Here, we construct a closed-loop material flow analysis model for CPPI, examine the evolution patterns of material metabolism from 1990 to 2019, and explore the demand for paper production, waste paper recycling, and virgin fiber supply in 2030 and 2050 under multiple scenarios considering critical factors. Results show that the industry has undergone rapid expansion, increased material use efficiency, and a shift towards recycled pulp from 1990 to 2019. China's paper demand will grow to 186 Mt in the next 30 years, resulting in a significant increase in both demand for fibers (173 Mt) and the generation of waste paper (138 Mt). To ensure a sustainable fiber supply for CPPI, domestic waste paper recycling needs to be prioritized. However, attention should also be paid to the availability of virgin pulp supply and proper disposal of organic solid waste. Proper management of these factors is crucial for achieving a circular economy in the industry and reducing its environmental impact. The findings highlight the importance of addressing both raw material supply and waste paper management for CPPI's sustainable development. [Display omitted] [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]