Back to Search
Start Over
Simple pre-post analysis overestimates the impacts of new public transit services on ridership: Evidence from a quasi-experimental study of new bus rapid transit in Columbus, Ohio, USA.
- Source :
- Journal of Public Transportation; 2022, Vol. 24, p1-11, 11p
- Publication Year :
- 2022
-
Abstract
- This paper empirically demonstrates the value of quasi-experimental study designs to evaluate the direct impacts of new public transit services on ridership within its corridor. Using a new bus rapid transit (BRT) service, CMAX, in Columbus, Ohio, USA, as an example, we compare its impact on ridership based on a pre-post and quasi-experimental analysis framework. We conduct the pre-post analysis using a ridership space-time cube exploring a massive Automatic Passenger Counter (APC) database. Differences in total passenger counts before and after the BRT intervention indicate a 36% increase in ridership within its corridor. However, this patronage increase may not be attributable solely to the new public transit service. Potential confounding effects include systemwide ridership trends and a new unlimited transit pass program for downtown workers. To address these issues, we adopt a quasiexperimental study design with a difference-in-differences (DiD) identification strategy. We use propensity score matching (PSM) to match a counterfactual control group with the treatment group when implementing DiD model. After accounting for confounding effects, we find a less than 5% increase but not statistically significant impacts of CMAX on ridership. Our results support the argument that a simple pre-post analysis ignoring confounding effects can lead to a misleading evaluation of a new public transit service's direct impact on ridership. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 1077291X
- Volume :
- 24
- Database :
- Supplemental Index
- Journal :
- Journal of Public Transportation
- Publication Type :
- Academic Journal
- Accession number :
- 162661586
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubtr.2022.100035