The Cellular Automata Approach in Dynamic Modelling of Land Use Change Detection and Future Simulations Based on Remote Sensing Data in Lahore Pakistan.

Rapid urbanization has become an immense problem in Lahore city, causing various socio-economic and environmental problems. Therefore, it is noteworthy to monitor land use/land cover (LULC) change detection and future LULC patterns in Lahore. The present study focuses on evaluating the current extent and modeling the future LULC developments in Lahore, Pakistan. Therefore, the semi-automatic classification model has been applied for the classification of Landsat satellite imagery from 2000 to 2020. And the Modules of Land Use Change Evaluation (MOLUSCE) cellular automata (CA-ANN) model was implemented to simulate future land use trends for the years 2030 and 2040. This study project made use of Landsat, Shuttle Radar Topography Mission Digital Elevation Model, and vector data. The research methodology includes three main steps: (i) semi-automatic land use classification using Landsat data from 2000 to 2020; (ii) future land use prediction using the CA-ANN (MOLUSCE) model; and (iii) monitoring change detection and interpretation of results. The research findings indicated that there was a rise in urban areas and a decline in vegetation, barren land, and water bodies for both the past and future projections. The results also revealed that about 27.41% of the urban area has been increased from 2000 to 2020 with a decrease of 42.13% in vegetation, 2.3% in barren land, and 6.51% in water bodies, respectively. The urban area is also expected to grow by 23.15% between 2020 and 2040, whereas vegetation, barren land, and water bodies will all decline by 28.05%, 1.8%, and 12.31%, respectively. Results can also aid in the long-term, sustainable planning of the city. It was also observed that the majority of the city's urban area expansion was found to have occurred in the city's eastern and southern regions. This research also suggests that decision-makers and municipal Government should reconsider city expansion strategies. Moreover, the future city master plans of 2050 must emphasize the relevance of rooftop urban planting and natural resource conservation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]