The Effect of the One-Child Policy and Children?s Sex Composition on Birth Spacing in China, 1979-1993.

Using retrospective birth history data from the China Health and Nutrition Survey, this paper attempts to examine effect of the strength of the one-child policy and children's sex composition on birth spacing in China from 1979 to 1993, and to determine whether their effects on timing of births vary across birth order. China's one-child policy has three versions: the two-child version in which couples are allowed to have two children; the girl-exception version in which couples are allowed to have a second birth if the first is a female; and the strict one-child version in which couples are allowed to have only one child under normal circumstances. This policy is implemented through different strategies, including economic and non-monetary incentives and disincentives. Findings suggest that the one-child policy and children's sex composition are related to the timing of birth(s). First, the effect on birth spacing of the strength of the one-child policy and its implementation strategies is relatively constant. A stricter version of the policy and incentives increase the timing of births, while disincentives reduce it. Second, the policy effect varies across birth order. The one-child policy has a weaker effect on the first birth interval than on the second birth interval. Lastly, the sex composition of previous children is a salient predictor of the timing of subsequent births. A female child (the first birth) is associated with a shorter second birth interval, compared with a male child. Similarly, if the first two children are girls, the interval to the third birth is much shorter than a boy and a girl combination. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]