Impact Analysis of Rising Strategic Instability on Nuclear Disarmament: Case Study of South Asia.

The South Asian security dynamics - shaped by persistent bilateral conflicts between Pakistan and India, changing force postures, India's continued aspirations to seek strategic supremacy, development and possible employment of emerging technologies, suspension of the composite dialogue process, and absence of concrete arms control between the two nuclear adversaries - increase the salience of nuclear deterrence in security doctrines and offer few prospects for arms control and disarmament. This paper offers an assessment of the strategic situation in the region and argues that the prevailing regional environment seems less favourable to nuclear disarmament and more inclined to arms racing. It suggests that the two nuclear adversaries in South Asia need to engage in meaningful dialogue and pursue an incremental approach to build trust, resolve outstanding disputes, promote nuclear restraint and hence enter into effective arms control mechanisms to eventually promote disarmament. This requires eschewing aspirations for strategic supremacy and reaching a consensus on mutual vulnerability as being the basic framework for deterrence stability between the two states. This approach may pave the way towards institutionalized measures to avoid war, promote an arms control culture and stabilize deterrence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]