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A Comparison: Prediction of Death and Infected COVID-19 Cases in Indonesia Using Time Series Smoothing and LSTM Neural Network.

Authors :
Rasjid, Zulfany Erlisa
Setiawan, Reina
Effendi, Andy
Source :
Procedia Computer Science; 2020, Vol. 179, p982-988, 7p
Publication Year :
2020

Abstract

COVID-19 is a virus causing pneumonia, also known as Corona Virus Disease. The first outbreak was found in Wuhan, China, in the province of Hubei on December 2019. The objective of this paper is to predict the death and infected COVID-19 in Indonesia using Savitzky Golay Smoothing and Long Short Term Memory Neural Network model (LSTM-NN). The dataset is obtained from Humanitarian Data Exchange (HDX), containing daily information on death and infected due to COVID-19. In Indonesia, the total data collected ranges from 2 March 2020 and by 26 July 2020, with a total of 147 records. The results of these two models are compared to determine the best fitted model. The curve of LSTM-NN shows an increase in death and infected cases and the Time Series also increases, however the smoothing shows a tendency to decrease. In conclusion, LSTM-NN prediction produce better result than the Savitzky Golay Smoothing. The LSTM-NN prediction shows a distinct rise and align with the actual Time Series data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Details

Language :
English
ISSN :
18770509
Volume :
179
Database :
Supplemental Index
Journal :
Procedia Computer Science
Publication Type :
Academic Journal
Accession number :
148863464
Full Text :
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.procs.2021.01.102