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More Fault Connectivity Is Needed in Seismic Hazard Analysis.
- Source :
- Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America; Feb2021, Vol. 111 Issue 1, p391-397, 7p
- Publication Year :
- 2021
-
Abstract
- Did the third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3) go overboard with multifault ruptures? Schwartz (2018) argues that there are too many long ruptures in the model. Here, I address his concern and show that the UCERF3 rupture-length distribution matches empirical data. I also present evidence that, if anything, the UCERF3 model could be improved by adding more connectivity to the fault system. Adding more connectivity would improve model misfits with data, particularly with paleoseismic data on the southern San Andreas fault; make the model less characteristic on the faults; potentially improve aftershock forecasts; and reduce model sensitivity to inadequacies and unknowns in the modeled fault system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 00371106
- Volume :
- 111
- Issue :
- 1
- Database :
- Supplemental Index
- Journal :
- Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America
- Publication Type :
- Academic Journal
- Accession number :
- 148533192
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.1785/0120200119