Emergence scoring to identify frontier R&D topics and key players.

Indicators of technological emergence promise valuable intelligence to those determining R&D priorities. We present an implemented algorithm to calculate emergence scores for topical terms from abstract record sets. We offer a family of emergence indicators deriving from those scores. Primary emergence indicators identify "hot topic" terms. We then use those to generate secondary indicators that reflect organizations, countries, or authors especially active at frontiers in a target R&D domain. We also flag abstract records (papers or patents) rich in emergent technology content, and we score research fields on relative degree of emergence. This paper presents illustrative results for example topics – Nano-Enabled Drug Delivery, Non-Linear Programming, Dye Sensitized Solar Cells, and Big Data. • We present a routine to calculate R&D emergence scores for topics in a dataset. • Emergence scores distinguish cutting-edge topical activity in a research domain. • We measure cutting-edge R&D organizations, countries or authors. • Emergent terms for 3 case analyses predict succeeding period R&D activity. • Emergence scoring spotlights cutting-edge R&D organizations in the 3 cases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]