Implementation of long-term assessment of human health risk for metal contaminated groundwater: A coupled chemical mass balance and hydrodynamics model.

Assessing human health risk using spatiotemporal migration and geochemical evolution concurrently in an area where the groundwater is contaminated with heavy metals can provide more instructive information to protect specific potential negative impacts on human health. In this research, we established a model of long-term assessment of human health risk for metal contaminated groundwater by coupling two models: the geochemical (based on the law of chemical mass balance) model and the hydrodynamics module. The hydrodynamics module is used to initially identify the total temporal concentration of various elements, and the chemical mass balance module is used to gain the concentration and ionic activity of various toxic elements according to the range of environmental pH. Effective concentrations calculated using activity weight (based on speciation and ionic activity) were introduced into the formula for risk analysis. The results of the study show that, with the exploitation and recharge of groundwater, the non-carcinogenic and carcinogenic health risks cannot be reduced to acceptable levels until 18 and 22 years, respectively. The calculated risk values of using the coupling model are lower than that of statistics or single hydrokinetics. The sensitivity analysis results show that this model is reliable. The recharge, pH and the permeability coefficient are defined as the most sensitive factors. Image 1 • Predicting groundwater metal content by chemical equilibrium and hydrodynamic model. • Assessing human health risks associated with metal species. • Forecasting spatiotemporal trends of heavy metal concentrations. • Analysis of sensitive factors (rainfall and pH) affecting future risk prediction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]