Technology options: Can Chinese power industry reach the CO2 emission peak before 2030?

From the start of China's G20 presidency, China positions itself as a world leader in fighting climate change and emphasizes the wish to 'break a new path for growth'. China aims to peak carbon dioxide (CO 2) emissions by 2030 and cut its greenhouse gas emissions per unit of gross domestic product by 60–65% from 2005 levels by 2030. The pledge is eagerly awaited as China aims to develop a low carbon economy through switching to alternatives to fossil fuels and being technologically energy-efficient. The power industry is the most important industrial sector while the biggest bottleneck for CO 2 emission control in China. This paper develops a technologies-based bottom-up CO 2 mitigation model to assess emission reduction potential of different technologies in the thermal power industry up to 2030. Using 2010 as the reference year, two macro-economic scenarios and four technological scenarios have been set to describe future policy measures for the period of 2015–2030. CO 2 emission trends, reduction potentials and cost curves are demonstrated under different scenarios. The results show that the electric power industry can reach its CO 2 emission peak by 2030 in the middle policy control scenario under macro-economic slow growth. Emissions would peak at 4.6 billion tonnes CO 2 -eq for the least cost scenario, which is 1.78 billion tones CO 2 -eq less than peak the BAU scenario in 2030. This is equivalent to the total CO 2 emissions from 300 MW to 1000 MW coal-fired power plants with 5000 h in 30 provinces and municipalities of China in 2013. This research shows that the top four negative cost-beneficial technology options, 630℃ or 700℃ USC, small hydroelectricity, and nuclear power pressurized water reactor II and III, are the most preferable to be promoted to meet the CO 2 emissions peak target in 2020 and 2030. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]