LIONHEART OR PAPER TIGER? A FIRST-TERM KOIZUMI RETROSPECTIVE.

Many commentators have opined as to the relative success or failure of Prime Minister Koizumi Junichiro's efforts to enact reform during his first term. This article analyzes the empirical evidence using a simple framework for assessment. The principal questions it asks are: What, if anything, has he accomplished thus far, and how will history remember his legacy? Following a summary of the circumstances that led to Koizumi's ascendancy and the political and economic conditions under which he governs, the article analyzes the results achieved in the prime minister's top three priority areas: banks, government spending, and regulatory reform. Despite the incremental progress achieved by Koizumi in the face of intense political opposition--most particularly from his own party--the article concludes that his current pace of reform is not likely to result in significant reform by the end of his second term as his party's president. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]