Commentary: Achieving phosphorus reduction targets for Lake Erie.

Abstract Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs), which were largely absent from Lake Erie from the 1980s until the mid-late 1990s, have been growing steadily worse in intensity. While much of the phosphorus loading into the lake prior to 1972 was caused by point-source pollution, approximately 88% to 93% of current loading comes from nonpoint sources, of which agriculture is the dominant land use. A reduction target of 860 metric tons, or 40% of the total phosphorus spring loading in 2008, has been set with the expectation that such a reduction could limit the size and associated impact of HABs in 9 out of every 10 years. We review the effectiveness of recommended practices aimed at reducing phosphorus loss in agriculture and pair this knowledge with behavioral data on likely adoption to identify how best to achieve the reduction target. The data suggests that the target is feasible as a majority of the farming population is willing to consider many of the recommended practices. However, increases in adoption over time have been minimal, and farmers will need better cost-benefit information, site-specific decision support tools, and technical assistance in order to more rapidly adopt and execute the placement of recommended practices. A combination of voluntary and mandatory approaches may be needed, but policies and programs promoting voluntary adoption should be designed to better target known barriers and maximize voluntary program effectiveness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]