Quantitative Assessment of Clean Transition of GenCo Considering Other Participants' Generation Investment.

Abstract The clean transition of GenCo is affected by various uncertainties such as strategies of other participants, power grid development, policies, and power demand, among which, being the most direct stakeholders in electricity market, other participants' generation investment is crucial. This paper simulates the dynamic trajectories of installed capacity, power generation, as well as annual average coal consumption rate of China's power supply structure from 1985 to 2015, and the dynamic transition process of a traditional coal-dominated GenCo from 2016 to 2030. Based on simulation, this paper comprehensively evaluates the impact of other participants' generation investment on clean transition of GenCo, and quantitatively analyzes the robustness of a given clean transition strategy in different scenarios. The results achieved by quantitative analysis of simulation can provide decision support for GenCos' decision makers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]