Scenario analysis of CO2 emission abatement effect based on LEAP.

Abstract Stabilization and reduction of the atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2) concentration will be one of the prime challenges for the energy sector in the upcoming decades. Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is widely seen as a possibility to continue fossil power generation while contributing to CO 2 abatement. In future energy systems with high shares of fluctuating renewable energy generation, nuclear power will become increasingly important for power generation. The development of natural gas power is considered as one of effective ways to reduce emissions and socio-economic costs as well. As a measure to establish a climate-friendly energy system, a power system research on coordinated development of nuclear and natural gas power would be considered. Therefore, future electrical power scenarios aimed at environmental and economic effects for China would considered a full mix of energy options. Based on the LEAP tool, this paper establishes a bottom-up model (LEAP-China-Power) to simulate different electric power planning policy scenarios that could be enacted from 2012 to 2050. In addition to a baseline scenario, we design CCS scenario and nuclear and Natural Gas Combined Cycle(N&N) scenario. The results indicate that N&N scenario is superior to CCS scenario. And China's future power planning recommendations are proposed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]