Incorporating Structure and Stochasticity in Muscadine Grape Enterprise Budget and Investment Analysis.

We developed and investigated a stochastic farm enterprise budget framework that properly accounts for uncertainty in estimates used for investment decisions and structural dependency between yields and prices, which is generally absent in traditional (nonstochastic) budgets. In the first stage, we developed a traditional enterprise budget based on theoretical and accounting methods recommended by the American Agricultural Economics Association (AAEA) Task Force on Commodity Costs and Returns. In the second stage, we developed a probabilistic framework based on estimates derived from die traditional approach, and extended the approach to a stochastic framework through Monte Carlo simulations under specific price elasticity of demand. We applied the framework to estimate the costs, revenues and conducted investment analysis of producing muscadine grapes (Vitis rotundifolia) in Georgia using a single-trellis system. Finally, we compared results derived from both approaches and revealed muscadine grape production and marketing to be an economically sound investment under multiple scenarios. Overall, the confidence placed on traditional budget estimates and investment outcomes was found to be overestimated at least 3-fold. This suggests that the true uncertainty in the returns and profitability of the business is grossly underestimated, erroneously painting a more promising outlook of investing in muscadine grape production. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]