Into which jobs do the unemployed move? Differences between foreigners and Spaniards in a changing economy.

This article studies the likelihood to become employed as well as the occupational attainment of those who leave unemployment. Specifically, this article analyses the factors that explain initial differences found between foreigners and Spaniards, and examines to what extent the economic context reduces or increases the gap between those groups. To do so, data from the Spanish Labor Force Survey from 2005 until 2010 is used. Logistic regression analysis show that Latin Americans and Eastern Europeans had a higher probability to be employed again, at least during the growth economic period, after controlling for human capital variables as well as socio-demographic factors and others related with the job characteristics before the unemployment. This advantage, however, disappeared during the financial crisis. Only Africans have a significant and constant higher risk of being unemployed from 2008 onwards. Moreover, the effect of some factors that influence the likelihood to be employed seems to change depending on the economic cycle. Apparently, human capital only has a positive influence during the crisis. With respect to the occupational attainment, the analysis show that, while it is important to consider various socio-demographic factors, the type of occupation in which people worked before becoming unemployed has a remarkable influence on the skill-level of subsequent jobs. Even after controlling for all variables in the study, it remains more likely for foreigners from outside the European Union-15 to occupy the lowest positions of the occupational ladder than for Spaniards, regardless of the economic context. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]