Decomposition Analysis of District Heating System based on Complemented Kaya Identity.

The paper analyses possibilities for CO 2 emission reduction into the centralized district heating system by using the index decomposition analysis: Kaya identity equation. The classical Kaya equation is complemented with an energy efficiency indicator of a district heating system. The paper focuses on the impact of the Kaya equation components on the CO 2 emission reduction. The elaborated methodology is tested in order to analyze possibilities for CO 2 emission reduction at district heating systems in Latvia. 3 scenarios were formed for the forecast of the CO 2 emission reduction. In case the current model for the state development is continued (scenario1) CO 2 emissions will be reduced for 13%; however, in the scenario of orderly and balanced DH systems they will reduce for 29% by 2020 as compared to 2012. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]