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Carbon lock-in through capital stock inertia associated with weak near-term climate policies.
- Source :
- Technological Forecasting & Social Change; Jan2015 Part A, Vol. 90, p62-72, 11p
- Publication Year :
- 2015
-
Abstract
- Stringent long-term climate targets necessitate a limit on cumulative emissions in this century for which sufficient policy signals are lacking. Using nine energy-economy models, we explore how policies pursued during the next two decades impact long-term transformation pathways towards stringent long-term climate targets. Less stringent near-term policies (i.e., those with larger emissions) consume more of the long-term cumulative emissions budget in the 2010–2030 period, which increases the likelihood of overshooting the budget and the urgency of reducing GHG emissions after 2030. Furthermore, the larger near-term GHG emissions associated with less stringent policies are generated primarily by additional coal-based electricity generation. Therefore, to be successful in meeting the long-term target despite near-term emissions reductions that are weaker than those implied by cost-optimal mitigation pathways, models must prematurely retire significant coal capacity while rapidly ramping up low-carbon technologies between 2030 and 2050 and remove large quantities of CO 2 from the atmosphere in the latter half of the century. While increased energy efficiency lowers mitigation costs considerably, even with weak near-term policies, it does not substantially reduce the short-term reliance on coal electricity. However, increased energy efficiency does allow the energy system more flexibility in mitigating emissions and, thus, facilitates the post-2030 transition. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 00401625
- Volume :
- 90
- Database :
- Supplemental Index
- Journal :
- Technological Forecasting & Social Change
- Publication Type :
- Academic Journal
- Accession number :
- 100025354
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2013.10.001