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Inaction and climate stabilization uncertainties lead to severe economic risks.
- Source :
- Climatic Change; Dec2014, Vol. 127 Issue 3/4, p463-474, 12p
- Publication Year :
- 2014
-
Abstract
- Climate stabilization efforts must integrate the actions of many socio-economic sectors to be successful in meeting climate stabilization goals, such as limiting atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO) concentration to be less than double the pre-industrial levels. Estimates of the costs and benefits of stabilization policies are often informed by Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) of the climate and the economy. These IAMs are highly non-linear with many parameters that abstract globally integrated characteristics of environmental and socio-economic systems. Diagnostic analyses of IAMs can aid in identifying the interdependencies and parametric controls of modeled stabilization policies. Here we report a comprehensive variance-based sensitivity analysis of a doubled-CO stabilization policy scenario generated by the globally-aggregated Dynamic Integrated model of Climate and the Economy (DICE). We find that neglecting uncertainties considerably underestimates damage and mitigation costs associated with a doubled-CO stabilization goal. More than ninety percent of the states-of-the-world (SOWs) sampled in our analysis exceed the damages and abatement costs calculated for the reference case neglecting uncertainties (1.2 trillion 2005 USD, with worst case costs exceeding $60 trillion). We attribute the variance in these costs to uncertainties in the model parameters relating to climate sensitivity, global participation in abatement, and the cost of lower emission energy sources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 01650009
- Volume :
- 127
- Issue :
- 3/4
- Database :
- Complementary Index
- Journal :
- Climatic Change
- Publication Type :
- Academic Journal
- Accession number :
- 99621165
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1283-0