Life cycle analysis and environmental effect of electric vehicles market evolution in Portugal.

Fossil fuel dependency in Portugal is represented in around 76% of the total primary energy use, from which almost half is associated to the road transport sector. The reduction of imported fossil energy, pollutants and CO₂ emissions is seen as a solution to a more sustainable energy system. This paper analyzes the market penetration of battery electric vehicles in the road transport sector as an alternative and more efficient technology, considering its maximum share in the transport sector in 2050. The main goal is to evaluate the energy consumption, air pollutants (including CO₂ emissions), and the economic impacts of conventional and electric vehicles in Portugal. The environmental Kuznets effect in the studied factors is also evaluated. Life cycle methodology was applied to the "fuel" production and use stage, and to the materials of the vehicle. Although reducing energy consumption and emissions is essential, the relation of such impact within the region economy is also extremely important. Based on a Kuznets curve hypothesis, some of those impacts were possible to co-relate with the gross domestic product evolution in Portugal. The evolution of the energy source share, energy production efficiency, vehicle type share in the Portuguese light duty vehicle fleet, and technology efficiency, was also considered. Although the electrification of the road sector can potentially lower the fossil fuel importation, the electricity demand should increase. Nevertheless, it is estimated that around 43% of the energy consumption, 47% of CO₂ emissions, and 17%-40% of air pollutants could be reduced with the expected electric vehicle evolution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]