Trade Policy and the Southern Economy.

The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) is part of a 50-year process of trade liberalization in the United States. From the end of the Civil War through World War II, however average tariff rates were high by historical standards. The article explores the impact of "free trade" on regional economic performance--specifically, the pace of economic convergence between the American South and the rest of the United States. Econometric analysis suggests that trade liberalization speeded up convergence. Based on the authors' results, it is predicted that, on average, the South will benefit from NAFTA, although there may be some adverse distributional consequences. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]