Evaluation of the Ministry of Finance's Forecast History.

This paper evaluates the accuracy of macroeconomic economic forecasts of the Ministry of Finance of the Czech Republic using the average forecasting error, the mean absolute error and Theil's inequality coefficient. The paper analyses the forecast accuracy of the main macroeconomic indicators - real GDP growth, nominal GDP growth, GDP deflator growth, real private consumption growth, average inflation rate, average unemployment rate and current account balance to GDP Ratio. The forecast accuracy is also assessed using the modified Diebold and Mariano test, which compares the accuracy of two forecasts under the null hypothesis that assumes no differences in accuracy. Last but not least, the paper compares the accuracy of the forecasts of the Ministry of Finance to those of the European Commission, Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development and International Monetary Fund. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]