Impact of Climate Change on sediment yield from the Upper Plata Basin.

In a Climate Change context, it is relevant to assess the potential impacts of variations of climate drivers on sediment yield from basins with high soil exportation rates. This paper develops a methodology, based on the erosion potential method, which was applied to the upper basins of Bermejo and Pilcomayo Rivers (in the Upper Plata Basin), to estimate future trends in sediment yield. Projections for climate drivers (rainfall and temperature) were obtained through four regional climate models, with boundary conditions provided by three global climate models, for the period 2011–2100. Satellite imagery and gridded climate data were used to implement the sediment yield baseline scenario (1961–1990), which was calibrated based on solid discharge data. The model was used to determine projections of sediment yields, as time series of mean annual values for each basin. The analysis was performed on average for three-decadal periods, namely, the scenarios of ‘near future’ (2011–2040), for which current yields are essentially maintained; ‘intermediate future’ (2041–2070), where a reduction trend is detected; and ‘far future’ (2071–2100), with a recovery of yields, which even increase above the baseline scenario rate in the case of the Bermejo Upper Basin. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]