Coevolutionary Dynamics of Automotive Competition: Product Innovation, Change, and Marketplace Survival.

Innovation and new model development have been paramount in the U. S. automotive industry. The industry has invested around $16-18 billion annually to launch new models and improve existing ones in response to incessant evolution of consumer preferences, competitive pressures, and changes in safety and emission regulations. Although these investments have significantly reduced cycle time and increased efficiency (e.g., through platform communization), it still costs around $1 billion to develop and launch a new model from scratch. Therefore, the strategic focus in the U. S. automotive industry is rapidly shifting away from manufacturing efficiency to product development and innovation as firms engage in an 'arms race' to develop innovative new products ahead of the competition. The outcome of this new focus manifests itself in the total development time for a new platform vehicle, which is expected to drop from roughly four years in 1998 to two years in 2014. As development cycles continue to shorten, competition in the industry intensifies, and a new insight is needed to better understand how increased competition can affect the gains from innovations. The need for research to fill this gap is especially critical as executives continue to grow more cynical about returns offered by increases in research and development ( R& D) expenditures and see no statistically significant relationship between R& D expenditures and firm performance. This study attempts to address this gap by adopting a coevolutionary perspective that analyzes the relationship between innovations and firm performance by accounting for the impact of competitive forces in the industry. First, this study explicitly models competitive interactions between firms, known in the ecology literature as the Red Queen competition, in which gains from innovations are relative and impermanent. Second, hypotheses are tested using a comprehensive data set comprising all automobile manufacturers ever known to compete in the U. S. automobile market at any time between 1891 and 2000. Complete coverage of 110 years enables precise analysis of the link between innovations and firm performance as well as the coevolution in the U. S. automobile industry. The results suggest that although extensiveness of an innovation is relevant, a firm's ability to keep up with the competition in the innovation arms race is a more significant driver of survival in the market. Thus, firms cannot simply evaluate their innovation efforts in a silo but must constantly assess their efforts versus the innovation launches of their key competitors. Based on the findings, automotive manufacturers must develop a structured product development program that allows for continual and steady new product introductions; otherwise, even momentary setbacks can have a damaging impact on a firm's ability to survive in the automotive marketplace. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]