THE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK OF THE UNITED KINGDOM.

A single change was to be observed between the two wars, a change to which the second war has given additional significance. One can collate that change with others and with anything in the position of Great Britain, if there is anything, which remains unchanged. There is a rough and ready index of the change in the fall between 1912 and 1938 in the proportion of British industrial production which was devoted to export. It fell from about two-fifths of the whole to about one-seventh. A seventh is not a small proportion, the multiplier effect on the rest of the economy of any variation in so large a fraction might be great, and its influence is enhanced by the concentration of a large part of this export production on a few industries and a few areas. But the decline is a significant change. Some such change was overdue before the first World War. The concentration on the one hand of so much of the world's export trade in textiles, coal, ships, and hardware in British hands, and on the other of so much of British resources in these exports was a survival of 19th century conditions which were passing and likely to be altered as knowledge of modern technology spread from old industrialized countries to new countries.