MARITIME TRAFFIC EXTERNALITIES IN THE GULF OF FINLAND UNTIL 2030.

Maritime traffic in the Gulf of Finland has grown remarkably during the 2000s. This increase has an impact on die environment and exposes it to risks. These problems should be controlled to guarantee sustainable development and the welfare of inhabitants in die area. A method for estimating die impact of ship-originated air emissions on the environment is to calculate their environmental externalities which are a part of the total marginal social costs of shipping. The internalization of externalities as a control metiiod of transport would comply with the polluter pays principle and act as a fair traffic control metiiod between transport modes. In this paper, we present the results of C0₂, NO_x, SO_x and PM emissions originating from ships and tiieir externalities in die Gulf of Finland up to 2015. The calculation algorithm developed for this study produces emission estimates per annum and converts them into externalities. We focus on passenger, tanker, general cargo, Ro-Ro, container and bulk vessel ship types representing almost 90% of the total NOx emissions of shipping in the area. Scenario modelling is a method for estimating die effects of forthcoming or planned regulations and helps with targeting emission abatement actions to maximize tiieir profit. The results of the calculation algorithm show that externalities can be used as a consultative tool for transport-related decision-making. The costs are given at the price levels of the year 2000. The total external cost of ship-originated C0₂, NO_x, SO_x and PM emissions in the Gulf of Finland was almost €175 million in 2007. Due to increased traffic volumes, diese costs will increase to nearly €214 million in 2015. The majority of externalities are produced by C02 emissions. If we deduct C02 externalities from the results, we get total externalities of €57 million in 2007. Following eight years (2015), externalities would be 28% or €41 million lower. This would be as a result of regulation reducing the sulphur content of marine fuels. Regulating SOx and PM emissions will slow down the increasing trend of shipborne externalities in the Gulf of Finland; however, die externalities are still growing. In order to achieve a downward trend, die two major compounds resulting in externalities must be reduced, which requires strict actions to lower shipborne C0₂ and NO_x emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]