Predicting Bond Fund Returns.

The article examines the ability of expense ratios and prior five-year returns to predict 1995-1999, 2000-2004, and 2005-2009 net returns on domestic taxable bond funds within the same Morningstar Inc. 3-by-3 fixed-income style box in the U.S. It notes that Morningstar measures a fund's credit risk based on its average credit rating. It further states that the expense ratios is forecasted a smaller returns for 2005-2009 period than in prior five-year periods.