A SPATIAL HEDONIC APPROACH ON LAND USE CHANGE ANTICIPATIONS.

ABSTRACT This paper estimates land use conversion anticipation when zoning is the primary tool of land use regulation. Extending the to the case of uncertainty in future land use zoning, a spatialized hedonic model is proposed to estimate such anticipation phenomena at a fine level (cadastral unit). Estimations use Mixed Geographically Weighted Regression (MGWR) techniques with a two-stage model that links agricultural and developable land markets. This allows for mapping varying spatial parameters that measure anticipation effects within the theoretical framework. Results confirm the influence of anticipation on agricultural land prices in the Provence region. Moreover, the level of data spatialization allows us to take into account intra-municipalities' heterogeneity of land use conversion anticipation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]