Potential Suitability and Viability of Selected Biodiesel Crops in Australian Marginal Agricultural Lands Under Current and Future Climates.

The potential environmental suitability and economic viability of growing two biodiesel crops in marginal regions of Australia were explored. Firstly, we used spatial analysis techniques to identify marginal agricultural regions suitable for growing pongam ( Pongamia pinnata) and Indian mustard ( Brassica juncea), and determined the base socioeconomic viability of investments for the production of biodiesel in the identified areas. Secondly, we used climate change projections (target years 2020 to 2070) from the Commonwealth Scientific, Industrial and Research Organization Mk3.0 global circulation model generated for two emission scenarios (A1B and A1FI) to determine the shift in potential areas for these crops. Under the climate change scenarios tested, the total area suitable for growing pongam between 2040 and 2070 is substantially different from the suitable area under current climate, indicating that long-term investments in this perennial tree crop may not be viable in all regions, especially in southern Australia. There is a greater variation in suitability projections for Indian mustard, although there is more flexibility for cropping options given that it is an annual crop. However, future economic viability is likely to depend on the ability to receive renewable energy certificates for both crops and, in the case of pongam, the certified emission reductions. Opportunities exist for sustainable pongam agroforestry to supply biodiesel to regional towns, cattle stations and mines in northern Australia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]