Outlook for 2011-12.

The article presents an outlook on the political sector of Tajikistan for 2011-2012, focusing on factors that may contribute to the threat of political instability to the administration of President Imomali Rahmon. It relates the increasing the capability of regional Islamist groups to stage attacks. It discusses the possibility for the increase in social unrest caused by poverty, high inflation and unemployment. It examines the likelihood for Rahmon to stand for and win re-election in 2013 despite the fact that he is currently in his third term.