The Supply of property offences in Ontario: evidence on the deterrent effect of punschment.

Abstract. Previously published studies attempting to test the economic model of property crime have generally found that the expected severity of punishment acts as a significant deterrent to prospective offenders. This study, employing 1971 data for Ontario census division areas, confirms the earlier studies with respect to most variables, but does not find sentence lengths to be significantly related to property crime rates. A different empirical representation of 'expected sentence length' is used in this paper, and its superiority over previously used measures is noted. Other hypotheses related to the deterrent effect of sentences are also empirically rejected. The paper concludes with possible explanations of why prospective offenders might respond to the certainty of punishment while apparently exhibiting indifference to its severity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]