Estimation of claims in an outbound automotive supply chain using capture-recapture methodology.

Vehicle inspection in an outbound automotive supply chain is a manual process performed in challenging conditions at various nodes along the transportation network. This paper describes the application of a statistical technique called 'capture-recapture (CR) modelling' (traditionally used in animal ecology estimation) to estimate the dealer claims based on the vehicle defects detected during inspection. Current industry practice in the USA permits the dealers to file the claims up to nine months after receiving the vehicles. The outcome of this research can be used to estimate the dealer claims at a one-month delay. Hence, the output of this model can be used to evaluate the progress made in the quality of the service in a finished vehicle supply chain without having to wait for the claims to be filed. On applying the CR technique to two assembly plants of a leading automotive manufacturer in the USA, the results were found to be statistically similar. Hence, the principles outlined in this paper can be used to estimate the claims in automotive supply chains more generally. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]