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Are there basic physical constraints on future anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide?
- Source :
- Climatic Change; Feb2011, Vol. 104 Issue 3/4, p437-455, 19p, 2 Diagrams, 1 Chart, 3 Graphs
- Publication Year :
- 2011
-
Abstract
- Global Circulation Models (GCMs) provide projections for future climate warming using a wide variety of highly sophisticated anthropogenic CO emissions scenarios as input, each based on the evolution of four emissions 'drivers': population p, standard of living g, energy productivity (or efficiency) f and energy carbonization c (IPCC WG III ). The range of scenarios considered is extremely broad, however, and this is a primary source of forecast uncertainty (Stott and Kettleborough, Nature 416:723-725, ). Here, it is shown both theoretically and observationally how the evolution of the human system can be considered from a surprisingly simple thermodynamic perspective in which it is unnecessary to explicitly model two of the emissions drivers: population and standard of living. Specifically, the human system grows through a self-perpetuating feedback loop in which the consumption rate of primary energy resources stays tied to the historical accumulation of global economic production-or p× g-through a time-independent factor of 9.7±0.3 mW per inflation-adjusted 1990 US dollar. This important constraint, and the fact that f and c have historically varied rather slowly, points towards substantially narrowed visions of future emissions scenarios for implementation in GCMs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 01650009
- Volume :
- 104
- Issue :
- 3/4
- Database :
- Complementary Index
- Journal :
- Climatic Change
- Publication Type :
- Academic Journal
- Accession number :
- 57360828
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-009-9717-9