"WHERE THE DUCKS ARE": SOUTHERN STRATEGY VERSUS FOURTH PARTY.

The author examines competing claims about the size and significance of shifts in party identification, concluding that the evidence supports neither Burnham's "disaggregation" hypothesis nor those who contend that the time is ripe for a new party of the "liberal left." On the contrary, his analysis suggests that file Republican party is the most likely beneficiary of such changes as are occurring among the electorate, and that in fact an increase in Independents portends a brighter future for a Republican southern strategy than for a left-oriented new party. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]