US export competitiveness: 1962-77.

This paper examines whether the decline in US export performance in manufactured goods over 1962-77 is associated with a decline in US competitiveness. This is accomplished using the Constant Market Share (CMS) model which decomposes the growth of US exports of manufactured goods into three components and a competitive residual.
The CMS model is a commonly accepted procedure for accounting for the sources of a country's export growth (other studies using the CMS model include DeVries, 1967; Junz and Rhomberg, 1965; Richardson, 1971a, b). However, it is subject to certain conceptual limitations as well as problems in empirical application which could lead to estimates whose values are sensitive to underlying assumptions and data measurement. Consequently,the CMS estimates derived here are subject to a series of sensitivity tests originally suggested by Richardson (1971b). This analysis provides a firmer basis for judging both the appropriateness of inferences made here about US competitiveness and the overall sensitivity of the CMS procedure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]