Forecasting Canadian consumption using the Dynamic Generalized Linear Expenditure System (DGLES).

This paper uses the Dynamic Generalized Linear Expenditure System (DGLES) to: 1. study the behaviour of the Canadian consumer; and 2. provide ex post forecasts of consumption expenditures by commodity group. The model is estimated for seven commodity groups (durables, food, fuel, gasoline, other non-durables, semi-durables and services) using quarterly data covering the period 1961.I-1978.IV. The method of estimation is the full information maximum likelihood routine, and the ex post forecasts are provided for the period 1979.I-1981.IV. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]