Psychological constructs in foreign policy prediction.

The article focuses on a prefactor analysis of a series of possible attitude-clusters or constructs and a suggested framework for linking these constructs may help in predicting foreign-policy decisional behavior and also in finding regularities in past decision-making behavior. Two schools of decision making have been presented. One is the Morgenthau school which is blamed for over-simplification and the other is the Snyder school known for its unmanageable complexities. A generalization about decision-making behavior is required for the sake of replicability and parsimony. Attempts to identify and structure common personality regularities which act towards the foreign policy environment have been made. The term constructs seems best for present purposes as it suggests an abstract structure for constructing environment. Moreover, it emphasizes the hypothetical nature of the attitude-clusters. Actual behavior is the independent variable from which constructs are inferred. The hope for a science of decision-making lies in the fact that humans demonstrate temporal constancy and strive for internal consistency in their reactions to their environment.