MEASUREMENT PROBLEMS IN DECISION ANALYSIS.

The article discusses measurement problems in the decision analysis process. The four identifiable steps in the decision analysis process are outlined, including the representation of the elements of the problem in a logical form that commonly leads to a decision tree, the assignment of probabilities at all chance forks in the tree, and the assignment of pay-offs or utilities at the tips of the branches of the tree. The drawing of the decision flow diagram is a crucial first step in any decision analysis, because the outlined tree structure will determine the degree of difficulty in obtaining assessments of uncertain quantities and utilities. Several different approaches to decision analysis are discussed.