Expo 86: An Escalation Prototype.

This paper examines British Columbia's decision to host a world's fair (Expo 86) in Vancouver. Despite rapidly increasing deficit projections (from a $6-million projected loss in 1978 to over a$300-million projected loss in 1985), the provincial government remained steadfast in its plans to hold Expo. Expo is therefore a visible and prototypical example of the escalation of commitment, a phenomenon subject to extensive laboratory research in recent years. By examining the Expo case in some detail, this study provides field grounding for previous investigations of escalation. The case not only illustrates the frequently studied processes of self-justification and biased information processing but also highlights the potential importance of institutional explanations of escalation. New theory is proposed that integrates determinants of escalation from several levels of analysis overtime. It is proposed that escalation starts with project and psychological forces but can evolve overtime into a more structurally determined phenomenon. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]