World energy: a manageable dilemma.

For a long time government officials and economists have been foretelling severe consequences--ranging from sharp dislocation to outright doom--for the world economy as convential fuels gradually become scarcer and the oil-producing countries continue to squeeze their customers with incremental price hikes. This article provides a fresh look and also offers a much more optimistic view of the future, up to the turn of the century, than is ordinarily heard. The authors predict a leveling-off in prices in constant dollar terms until the mid-1980s, when energy prices will rise and reflect the cost of supplies more difficult to recover. Competition and rivalries among the oil producers should heat up as conservation efforts gain momentum. Technological developments like use of oil shale and other new energy systems will then come to fruition. The authors buttress their claims with extensive graphic material derived from a great amount of analyzed data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]