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BET_EF: a probabilistic tool for long- and short-term eruption forecasting.

Authors :
Warner Marzocchi
Laura Sandri
Jacopo Selva
Source :
Bulletin of Volcanology; Mar2008, Vol. 70 Issue 5, p623-632, 10p
Publication Year :
2008

Abstract

Abstract  The main purpose of this paper is to introduce a Bayesian event tree model for eruption forecasting (BET_EF). The model represents a flexible tool to provide probabilities of any specific event which we are interested in, by merging all the relevant available information such as theoretical models, a priori beliefs, monitoring measures, and any kind of past data. BET_EF is based on a Bayesian procedure and it relies on the fuzzy approach to manage monitoring data. The method deals with short- and long-term forecasting; therefore, it can be useful in many practical aspects such as land use planning and volcanic emergencies. Finally, we provide the description of a free software package that provides a graphically supported computation of short- to long-term eruption forecasting, and a tutorial application for the recent MESIMEX exercise at Vesuvius. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Details

Language :
English
ISSN :
02588900
Volume :
70
Issue :
5
Database :
Complementary Index
Journal :
Bulletin of Volcanology
Publication Type :
Academic Journal
Accession number :
32608333
Full Text :
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-007-0157-y