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BET_EF: a probabilistic tool for long- and short-term eruption forecasting.
- Source :
- Bulletin of Volcanology; Mar2008, Vol. 70 Issue 5, p623-632, 10p
- Publication Year :
- 2008
-
Abstract
- Abstract  The main purpose of this paper is to introduce a Bayesian event tree model for eruption forecasting (BET_EF). The model represents a flexible tool to provide probabilities of any specific event which we are interested in, by merging all the relevant available information such as theoretical models, a priori beliefs, monitoring measures, and any kind of past data. BET_EF is based on a Bayesian procedure and it relies on the fuzzy approach to manage monitoring data. The method deals with short- and long-term forecasting; therefore, it can be useful in many practical aspects such as land use planning and volcanic emergencies. Finally, we provide the description of a free software package that provides a graphically supported computation of short- to long-term eruption forecasting, and a tutorial application for the recent MESIMEX exercise at Vesuvius. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Subjects :
- VOLCANIC activity prediction
VOLCANIC eruptions
GEOPHYSICS
BAYESIAN analysis
Subjects
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 02588900
- Volume :
- 70
- Issue :
- 5
- Database :
- Complementary Index
- Journal :
- Bulletin of Volcanology
- Publication Type :
- Academic Journal
- Accession number :
- 32608333
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-007-0157-y