MODELLING THE IMPACT OF TELECOMMUTING ON FUTURE URBANISATION IN THE NETHERLANDS.

Information and communication technologies (ICTs) have evolved to such a level that they can facilitate people's access to opportunities in virtual space (through telecommuting, teleshopping, e-learning, and so forth) along with accessing them in physical space. A hybrid space is therefore emerging, which will have consequences for people's spatial behaviour. In particular telecommuting is expected to change residential preferences and affect future urbanisation patterns. To explore this assertion, residential land-use allocation in the 2000 to 2030 period is projected for the Netherlands using a specially designed set of linked models for two scenarios (physical space and hybrid space). Results indicate that urban decentralisation and deconcentration are likely to accelerate because of increasing telecommuting. Attractive regions to live in at medium distances from large cities will in particular be confronted with new urban pressure of a sprawling nature. Urban policies have to be reconsidered to cope with these new spatial development trends. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]