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Refining the criteria for stalled fertility declines: an application to rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, 1990-2005.
- Source :
- Studies in Family Planning; Mar2008, Vol. 39 Issue 1, p39-48, 10p, 2 Charts, 4 Graphs
- Publication Year :
- 2008
-
Abstract
- Stalled fertility declines have been identified in several regions across the developing world, but the current conceptualization of a stalled fertility decline is poorly theorized and does not lend itself to objective measurement. We propose a more rigorous and statistically testable definition of stalled fertility decline that can be applied to time-series data. We then illustrate the utility of our definition through its application to data from rural South Africa for the period 1990-2005 collected from a demographic surveillance site. Application of the approach suggests that fertility decline has indeed stalled in rural KwaZulu-Natal, at about three children per woman. The stall, some 20 percent above the replacement fertility level, does not appear to be associated with a rise in wanted fertility or attenuated access to contraceptive methods. This identification of a stalled fertility decline provides the first evidence of such a stall in southern Africa, the region with the lowest fertility levels in sub-Saharan Africa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Subjects :
- HUMAN fertility
INFANT mortality
SOCIAL development
ECONOMIC development
Subjects
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 00393665
- Volume :
- 39
- Issue :
- 1
- Database :
- Complementary Index
- Journal :
- Studies in Family Planning
- Publication Type :
- Academic Journal
- Accession number :
- 30068865
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1728-4465.2008.00149.x