The Effect of Oil Prices on Transport Policies for Europe.

The future energy supply and the projected scarcity of oil will play an ever-increasing role in the development of land-use and transport strategies within Europe. This article provides a scenario-based investigation using a world energy market model (POLES) linked to an EU-level model (ASTRA) and a regional land-use transport interaction model (MARS). All three models were used to investigate the effects of policies in technology, infrastructure, pricing, and regulation under different assumptions about energy supply. Our results suggest that changes in oil prices will have a small impact on fuel use but that demand regulation will be needed to tackle congestion, and technology improvements can reduce emissions. Hence, investments in technologies and some demand regulation will be required to meet targets on sustainability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]