PROFILES OF INTERSTATE CRISES, 1918-1988.

This paper first presents an overview of data on 390 international crises, which incorporate 826 foreign policy crises, from the end of 1918 to the end of 1988. A set of crisis profiles is then constructed for the two superpowers of the post-World War II era, and for three regional systems, Africa, Asia and the Middle East. The data on international crises are presented in terms of a common format for the regional profiles, with slight modifications for the superpowers, in order to facilitate comparisons: time and space; duration; onset; threat; behavior; severity of violence; US/USSR activity; global organization involvement; and outcome. Within these categories, distributions are noted for each of the polarity structures—multipolarity (1918-39), bipolarity (1945-62), and polycentrism (1963-1988). Thereafter, comparisons are made between US and USSR crises (after World War II), and among the three regional profiles. The central thrust of the findings from these profiles is clear: they focus attention on the dual characteristics of twentieth century crises, their pervasiveness and diversity. These traits, in turn, make much more difficult the task of constructing a theory that provides a systematic explanation of interstate crisis from onset to termination. Complex reality imposes an intolerable burden on the search for necessary and sufficient conditions of crisis. In positive terms, it leads to a shift in focus, from `necessary and sufficient' to the "most likely" conditions as the most credible path to theory. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]