NESTED RIVALRIES: SUPERPOWER COMPETITION, ARMS TRANSFERS, AND REGIONAL CONFLICT, 1950-1990.

Interstate rivalries in the Third World cannot be fully understood apart from the global context in which they evolve and endure. This study examines the link between the superpowers' Cold War competition and regional rivalry by focusing specifically on arms-transfer relationships. Poisson regression analysis highlights the inter-relationships between superpower competition, arms transfers, and regional rivalry in the Middle East, Persian Gulf, South Asia, and the Horn of Africa from 1950 to 1990. Many of the observed patterns are consistent with a realist explanation of interstate alignment and conflict, but a more holistic theory is required to detail the mechanisms by which Third World rivalries are nested in great power competition. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]