An Empirical Analysis of Tijuana Water Consumption.

This paper examines time series characteristics of water consumption in Tijuana, a large manufacturing center and port city located in Northwestern Mexico. Home to more than 700 maquiladora assembly plants, it is one of the fastest growing metropolitan economies in Mexico. That growth places intense demands on the municipal water grid. Because it is located in a semi-arid region, Tijuana also faces supply constraints. Given the nature of the problems faced by water authorities, this research uses time series econometric techniques to analyze monthly information on grid hook-ups and per meter water consumption. Empirical estimation results are fairly satisfactory. Out-of-sample simulation results are mixed and indicate that care should be used if these equations are employed for planning purposes. Lag structures in the equations do, however, suggest several policy implications with respect to drought surcharges and rate hikes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]