Dental Manpower.

A recent report by the Department of Health and Society Security (DHSS) has argued that a 10% reduction in the intake to dental schools is needed if an oversupply of dentists over the next forty years is to be avoided. Whilst welcoming this recommendation it is likely that it may not go far enough. In this article we describe the approach used in the DHSS report to estimate the demand for and supply of dental care and examine the relevance and implications of the methods used and assumptions made in that report. It is argued that the use of extrapolations of past trends and the absence of sensitivity analysis in much of the analysis implies that little confidence can be placed in the estimates and that on balance the conclusions of the report are likely to lead to an excess supply of dentists over the next forty years. Recommendations are made for improving the planning of the future supply of dentists. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]