Estimating annual N2O emissions from agricultural soils in temperate climates.

The Kyoto protocol requires countries to provide national inventories for a list of greenhouse gases including N₂O. A standard methodology proposed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates direct N₂O emissions from soils as a constant fraction (1.25%) of the nitrogen input. This approach is insensitive to environmental variability. A more dynamic approach is needed to establish reliable N₂O emission inventories and to propose efficient mitigation strategies. The objective of this paper is to develop a model that allows the spatial and temporal variation in environmental conditions to be taken into account in national inventories of direct N₂O emissions. Observed annual N₂O emission rates are used to establish statistical relationships between N₂O emissions, seasonal climate and nitrogen-fertilization rate. Two empirical models, MCROPS and MGRASS, were developed for croplands and grasslands. Validated with an independent data set, MCROPS shows that spring temperature and summer precipitation explain 35% of the variance in annual N₂O emissions from croplands. In MGRASS, nitrogen-fertilization rate and winter temperature explain 48% of the variance in annual N₂O emissions from grasslands. Using long-term climate observations (1900–2000), the sensitivity of the models with climate variability is estimated by comparing the year-to-year prediction of the model to the precision obtained during the validation process. MCROPS is able to capture interannual variability of N₂O emissions from croplands. However, grassland emissions show very small interannual variations, which are too small to be detectable by MGRASS. MCROPS and MGRASS improve the statistical reliability of direct N₂O emissions compared with the IPCC default methodology. Furthermore, the models can be used to estimate the effects of interannual variation in climate, climate change on direct N₂O emissions from soils at the regional scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]