Measures of Consumer Confidence: Are They Useful?: RL31942.

The economic outlook is of considerable importance to policymakers. Any information that might prove helpful in forecasting the economy is thus of interest. Two economic indicators that get a lot of attention, because of their presumed value as leading indicators of economic conditions, attempt to measure the relative optimism of consumers about current economic conditions and prospects. One of these indicators is the index of consumer sentiment published by the University of Michigan Survey Research Center, and the other is the consumer confidence index published by the Conference Board. Both indexes are based on data collected in a monthly survey. The Michigan survey contacts 500 households by telephone. The Conference Board contacts 5,000 households by mail, of which about 3,500 typically respond. In both surveys five questions are asked, two of which have to do with current economic conditions and three of which have to do with expectations for the economic outlook. Each of the survey questions is multiple choice. While, intuitively, it makes sense that consumer attitudes would affect spending decisions, there remains uncertainty regarding the theoretical connection between the attitude indexes and spending. That makes it difficult to interpret individual observations, and short-run variations in the indexes. These indicators are not, apparently, insignificant. On their own and in concert with other economic variables they have been shown to contribute to forecasts of future consumer spending and hence of overall economic growth. But their contribution may be somewhat more modest than the attention they get would suggest. This report explains how these two indexes measuring consumer attitudes are calculated, the theoretical connection between consumer attitudes and economic growth, and examines their significance as indicators of the economic outlook. This report will be updated as economic developments warrant. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]